The growth of indias nuclear arsenal is quite slow and it does not appear to be picking up. Arms imports by individual southeast asian states show a similar picture. The entire arms race paradigm probably does not make sense. Sep, 2012 this could become a mindless race, driven by mutual suspicion, rather than the actual needs of deterrence and stability. Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Apr 02, 2014 asia follows china into an oldfashioned arms race. Understanding the arms race in south asia the apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. Simply defined as a competition between two or more states to have superior armed forces. Together, the six account for some 80% of arms exports worldwide.
During this very period, in addition to the american and soviet nuclear stockpiles, other countries developed nuclear weapons, though none engaged in warhead production on nearly the same scale as the two superpowers. Arms races as exemplified by the accumulation of stocks of weapons represent a very special case of weapons as an instrument of power. Some take it as a given that china and the united states are engaged in an arms race, and that the u. It is a place where most nations deeply distrust their neighbours, and where oldstyle nationalism still reigns supreme. If there is no arms race in east asia, then many of the conventionally accepted arguments about asian security and american grand strategy in the region need to be revised. Fearon department of political science stanford university draft march 24, 2011 abstract i consider a model of arming in which states choose in successive periods whether to build weapons and whether to attack, and in which arms accumulate across periods. In the succeeding paragraphs we discuss the richardson arms race model and use it as a framework to discuss the evolving strategic imperatives in asia. This could become a mindless race, driven by mutual suspicion, rather than the actual needs of deterrence and stability. Sep 30, 2016 it is with regard to this uncertain strategic context in the scs that commentaries emerged in fact preceding the july 12 award that there is an ongoing arms race in the region. Certainly many nations in the region have been on a veritable shopping spree for advanced conventional. A new arms race explaining recent southeast asian military. Jyotirmay research journal of education volume 5th, issue 1st issn.
It is difficult to say whether there is an ongoing arms race in east asia. In the past decade, military spending by the regions states has risen by 57 percent on average. As the regions economies become stronger, defence budgets are rising and navies are expanding and modernising. The next arms race the nonproliferation policy education center. Mar 29, 2016 comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia american troops participating in joint military exercises with south korea this month in pocheon, near the border with north korea. When considering the evolution of global arms races, it is apparent. Big spenders shares of world military spending tor the top 10.
Multipolar asia, strategic stability and nuclear deterrence. In 2012, for the first year in modern times, asian states spent more. Looking at southeast asia specifically, concerns about a potential regional arms race first emerged in the 1980s, when the regional air forces started to acquire supersonic combat aircraft for the first time. Comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia american troops participating in joint military exercises with south korea this. We have argued that arms races in the twentyfirst century will be very different from the cold war arms race. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie. The nuclear arms race was an arms race competition for supremacy in nuclear warfare between the united states, the soviet union, and their respective allies during the cold war. Other countries that claim parts of the region are expanding their. Big spenders shares of world military spending tor the top. India and pakistan are indeed entangled in a longstanding security competition. Top14 arms importers in asia and their main suppliers. Territorial disputes drive arms race in east asia japan.
Asian arms race but this is not a typical arms race spiral. Arms, transparency and security in southeast asia sipri. Most news coverage of security issues focused on north koreas nuclear program and the difficulties in the u. The regional superpower, china, is moving forward to dominate the south china sea. The workshop was held at the holiday inn singapore atrium and was run backtoback with the maritime security programmes conference on navies, coast guards, the maritime community and international stability. Jan 16, 2015 it is difficult to say whether there is an ongoing arms race in east asia. Cyber sovereignty from the moment that china first connected to the internet, chinese policymakers and analysts saw cyberspace as a doubleedged swordessential to economic growth and good governance but also a threat to domestic stability and regime legitimacy. A hoover institution essay chinese cyber diplomacy in a. Certainly many nations in the region have been on a veritable shopping. According to the perspective of indian and pakistan nawab sher research scholar, department of international relation, federal urdu uni. The following examines the evidence for an arms race using grays three criteria. Successful computerespionage attacks have kicked off a frantic and destabilizing digital arms race, with dozens of countries amassing cyberweapons and reconfiguring their militaries to meet the. Another driver of the arms race across asia is the north korean nuclear dispute. Security and conflict in east asia routledge handbooks online.
Chinas increasingly aggressive behaviour in the pacific is frequently cited as the trigger for this leap in arms. Kelsey davenport is the director for nonproliferation policy at the arms control association where she is responsible for researching and analyzing developments related to weapons of mass destruction in the middle east, northeast asia, and south asia. Indonesia and thailand diversify more than their peers. There is growing concern that southeast asia is in the midst of a regional arms race.
Others have become active in establishing nuclearweaponsfree zones or participating in projects like the five continents to midnight peace initiative. Why thaad will lead to a furious arms race in east asia. The conventional, missile and nuclear weapons arms race between. One underresearched aspect of the plas modernization has been the extent to which it has been supported by transfers of militaryrelevant technologies from western countriestransfers which have continued despite the arms embargoes. Military wise, south east asia has been in focus largely due to the. Some aspects of this procurement drive show signs of actionreaction dynamics between peer. The resulting arms competition, or arms dynamic, has at least the potential to contribute to a classical security dilemma, a situation whereby actions taken by a country can actually undermine the security and stability that they were meant to increase.
Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and. By around 2000 asias arms buildup, particularly in east asia, began to draw. Yet, for northeast asia at least, the military budget increases were more dramatic at that time than in the early 1990s. During this very period, in addition to the american and soviet nuclear stockpiles, other countries developed nuclear weapons, though none engaged in warhead. However, studies on military expenditures by india and pakistan have produced no unanimity of view on whether an arms race existed historically, let alone today. Mar 15, 2017 as regional conflicts continue to escalate in the middle east, eastern europe, and east asia, investments in military and security budgets around the world are growing. Beijing has used economic coercion, among other tools, to try to compel seoul to abandon the thaad. Territorial disputes drive arms race in east asia japan forward. Some scholars have claimed that an arms race was present in southeast asia even before the end of the cold war due to an upward trend in defence spending, driven largely by the open competitiveness of the extraregional powers as well as the competitiveness of the intraregional members wah 1987. It is with regard to this uncertain strategic context in the scs that commentaries emerged in fact preceding the july 12 award that there is an ongoing arms race in the region. Dec 26, 2016 arms race in asia we show case not 1 but a series of events which have happened in quick succession, in a span of just few weeks they clearly indicate that a massive arms race is on in south. He was deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation at the national nuclear. Arms exporters pivoting to asia in the past five years, the largest arms exporters have been the u.
China plays a critical role in fueling south asias nuclear arms race. Even though no weapons were ever actually used, the build up of weapons was a huge expense for the both economies of the us and the ussr 2172010 7 this expense may have helped lead to the downfall of the soviet union. The nuclear arms race was expensive for both sides. She joined the arms control association in 2011 as a herbert scoville jr. The global sporting arms race elements of successful national elite sport systems 20062011. Nervous supporters of the deal see the report, which says that pakistan is capable of using the reactor to produce enough plutonium to make 40 to 50 nuclear weapons a year, as the final attempt by the us nuclear nonproliferation lobby to raise paranoia over the prospect of. Compared to the period 20062011, vietnam s arms imports increased almost sevenfold.
Pacific, south asia has great potential for an arms race and for explosive. At al jazeera english, we focus on people and events. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are. Furthermore, russia remains a vital secondary arms seller to bangladesh, afghanistan, and myanmar. An arms race occurs when two or more nations participate in interactive or competitive increases in persons under arms as well as war material. The claims and realities this paper sets out to challenge the conventional wisdom that structural factors consist of the china threat, and that the ongoing south china sea disputes are the prime factors in the current military buildups in southeast asia. This, quite simply, is not the first time that concerns about arms races in asia have emerged.
It also sustains a growing global militaryindustrial complex. With over three billion people, it contains more than half of the global population, including the worlds two most populous nations, india and china, this paper will use indopacific, asiapacific, and asia interchangeably, all to refer to the same geographic area defined herein. Southeast asia military modernization, arms race, arms. Arms race in asia we show case not 1 but a series of events which have happened in quick succession, in a span of just few weeks they clearly indicate that a massive arms race is on in south. As regional conflicts continue to escalate in the middle east, eastern europe, and east asia, investments in military and security budgets around the world are growing. Comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia. Stability and instability in the asiapacific jeffrey lewis april 2016 there is a very energetic arms race occurring in northeast asia, one marked by the rapid development of ballistic and cruise missile capabilities. The littoral countries of the south china sea have committed large chunks of their military spending to upgrading their naval capacity, including in maritime aviation. Still others have actively worked for an end to bloody regional conflicts in central america, asia, and. By creating an element of vulnerability, it will tie down other countries in a furious arms race. The global sporting arms race sport performance centres. Presence of china complicates regional arms planning, undercuts regional arms race argument there is certainly a counterchina element to the sea arms acquisitions, esp.
These dynamics manifest despite the available evidence showing that the region is not now engaged in a fullscale arms race. During those years, no major periodicals proclaimed an arms race in asia. One of the things that is different about arms races now is the presence of increasing returns in the. Several scholars have applied this model to south asia directly to test for empirical evidence of an arms race. Superpower relations alevel the nuclear arms race 19491963 learning objectives to identify how nuclear weapons were developed by the two superpowers to explain why and how the arms race developed to use the cuban missile crisis as a case study to illustrate your explanation to evaluate the impact of the arms race. An analysis of warhead numbers does not sup port the conclusion that there is an arms race in south asia. Arms race analytical framework the term arms race, in its original usage, describes a competition between two or more parties for real or apparent military supremacy. The workshop was held at the holiday inn singapore atrium and was run backtoback with the maritime security programmes conference on navies, coast guards, the maritime community and international stability, held 16 17 november, also in singapore. For instance, india was estimated to have anywhere between 3050. The arms race in northeast asia undercuts all talk of peace in the region. The second time concerns about asian arms races emerged was in the 1990s, when the world witnessed a downsizing of military forces and defence spending in the west, while defence spending in asia was starting to dominate the global defence market. Pdf on feb 18, 2019, nawab sher and others published arms race in south asia. An arms race is afoot in southeast asia as the foremost military power in the world, the united states is currently the biggest market for naval weaponry.
Dec 20, 2017 the regional superpower, china, is moving forward to dominate the south china sea. A hoover institution essay chinese cyber diplomacy in a new. One underresearched aspect of the plas modernization has been the extent to which it has been supported by transfers of militaryrelevant technologies from western countriestransfers. Security trends in the asiapacific region the web site cannot be. However, while changes in southeast asias regional arms dynamics remain below the threshold of an arms race, they do amount to more than a maintenance of the status quo. Looming in the background are the nuclear capabilities of countries in the region nuclear weapons programs in china. Northeast asia is where four of the worlds largest militaries those of the united states, china, russia, and japan confront each other.
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